The poll showed that 71% of independence supporters were either coloured or black.
1 September 2020
The Cape Independence Advocacy Group (CIAG) is a single issue political pressure group whose goal is to promote the idea of the Western Cape peacefully and democratically breaking away from the Republic of South Africa and forming an independent sovereign state – the Cape of Good Hope.
The CIAG commissioned Gareth van Onselen’s Victory Research to conduct an opinion poll to establish the current level of support for the concept of an independent Western Cape. The poll was conducted at the end of July 2020. An authenticating statement from Victory Research, which includes the methodology, is attached.
The polling confirmed that there is widespread support for the concept of independence, with more than 1 in 3 Cape citizens (36%) saying they support Cape Independence and almost 1 in 2 (47%) supporting a referendum on the issue. This is despite the fact that, to date, no major political party has openly come out in support of independence. It also emphatically disproves the claim advanced by many politicians that the lack of electoral support for the Cape Party equates to a lack of support for independence – a claim the independence movement has always disputed.
To the contrary, the poll substantiates the claim the CIAG has always made – that the majority of independence supporters vote for the Democratic Alliance (DA). 65% of all independence supporters in the poll support the DA.
The poll goes much further than that, showing that the majority of DA (53%), Good Party (63%), and Freedom Front Plus supporters (89%) all want an independent Cape.
The myth that Cape independence is a white movement has also been emphatically refuted. The poll showed that 71% of independence supporters were either coloured or black.
A more detailed summary of the polling results is attached as a pdf document, and the results show a logical progression with Cape citizens feeling overwhelmingly negative about South Africa’s trajectory (73%) and in general agreement that the province needs to be given more power to govern itself (68%). Thereafter, as stated above, 47% support a referendum on independence, and 36% already want independence. 53% of those expressing an opinion, believed their quality of life would improve in an independent Western Cape.
The poll also investigated the reasons why people supported independence. Improved governance and escaping ANC misrule were the most popular reasons, followed by better security and policing, and an end to racially discriminatory laws. Of all the options provided, respondents believing their race would have more dominance in an independent Cape came in dead last.
The next steps for the CIAG will be to increase pressure on the DA to openly and honestly engage with the provincial electorate on the subject of independence, given the high levels of support in general, and especially within their own voter base. This will be done via behind the scenes lobbying, a continuation of the current media discussions, and the campaign moving beyond social media and onto the streets.
The DA has been quick to accuse the ANC of putting party before state, they must now decide if they intend to put party before province. The 2021 municipal elections are looming and there will be at least three other political parties openly campaigning for independence. These are the Freedom Front Plus, The Cape Coloured Congress and the Cape Party. The poll indicated that the DA would likely lose their provincial majority if they directly opposed independence, whilst talk by the DA of national coalition politics as an alternative solution for the people of the Cape rings rather hollow given their recent track record in that regard.
For a summary of the polling results, please click HERE
For further info Phil Craig can be contacted at phil.craig@capeindependence.org
