ANC 61, DA 19, EFF 11 (Ipsos, 29 April 2019)
The ANC’s current 62.15% majority in South Africa’s parliament is set to be tested in the upcoming national election on 8 May.
Simon Freemantle, Standard Bank’s senior political economist, tells STANLIB’s chief economist Kevin Lings that the latest survey by the South African Institute of Race Relations appears to be the most convincing of all three voter surveys. It suggests that if there is a 70% voter turnout, the ANC will win 55% of the vote, with the DA at 24% and the EFF at 11%.
Freemantle says while the ANC is still expected to maintain its overall majority, its support has steadily eroded in the last few elections. It is increasingly likely that the party will be compelled to form a coalition government in Gauteng, causing a material change in the political landscape. Because of the importance of Gauteng province, the shape of such a coalition government would influence national policy formulation in the long term.
The DA has moved to within six percentage points of the ANC in Gauteng according to the DA’s internal polling. The poll, seen by News24, shows support in Gauteng for the three biggest parties last Monday (April 22) as:
ANC: 44%, down from 48%
DA: 38%, up from 34%
EFF: 10%, down from 11%